Welcome to the 210^th edition of the Carnival of the Mobilists. This week it is the turn of Martin Wilson from Indigo102 to provide his take on a week in mobile. 

With only a week to go until the biggest event of the mobile calendar there seems to be no shortage of goings-on in our exciting industry. A common theme this week seems to be the opinion that the key to success in mobile is going back to basics – and getting the right skills, people and partners to deliver.

Here are some of the week’s highlights – we hope you enjoy the read.

The week got off to a flyer when well known industry contributor Tomi Ahonen posted his controversial summary of Mobile market share of 2009 at Communities Dominate Brands.  Numbers were backed up in a release from Strategy Analytics, which suggested that Smartphone sales in Q4 2009 had grown 30% year-on-year to reach a record 53m units.

The gadget war seems to be firmly on, with new devices and features seemingly emerging by the hour.  A throng of announcements is due in the coming week, although Generation Y’er Emma Vernon dismisses the Apple iPad for not fulfilling the basics. Which does beg the question – how ‘Smart’ do we really need our Smartphone?

The Back to basics theme is echoed by Redweb mobile strategist Carl Martin, as he urges the industry to slow down and return to the core values of marketing. “Train up and skill-up in mobile” – is the cry from top digital dog and mobile evangelist Tom Eslinger, from Saatchi and Saatchi. In an interview with mobiThinking, Eslinger strongly advocates the need to recruit people who understand mobile as it becomes firmly placed on the agenda of the top creative agencies.

Mobile marketing is certainly going mainstream for those not on the bandwagon and over at Mobile Marketing Watch, Return on investment (ROI) and education [or a lack of] are cited as reasons for hesitancy. The opportunity is certainly there as Tomi Ahonen posts a mind boggling array of statistics in his renowned annual view of the mobile industry. Over at Mobile Ecosystem we get the announcement from the GSMA and Comscore for the Mobile Media Metrics and with it some encouraging statistics for UK mobile internet activity.

In an candid interview with industry veteran Francisco Kattan, from Alcatel Lucent, WIP’s Caroline Lewko talks about the changing shape of the mobile development and asks “Are there too many go to market options for developers?”. Kattan gives his views and demonstrates how Alcatel Lucent is firmly focused on supporting developers.

The Microsoft mobile debate, or speculation, continued to rumble the rhetorical question – ‘but do we really care? – Of course we do!  Speculation is rife and we all want to see what Microsoft is intending to do as it scrambles to recover its position in mobile.  Suddenly, in the next breath Techcrunch reports the revealing of Sony Ericsson’s Aspen and WinMo 6.5.3. Mark Bridge of The Fonecast subsequently wades in with his own X-Files style conspiracy theory.

“Location” is the topic for Ajit Jaokar of Open Gardens, who praises Nokia for going back to grass roots and believes Nokia is setting the agenda as an industry leader once again. Praise continues for Nokia as Dennis Bournique, at Wap Review, gives his views on the N900 and describes how he believes it represents the next generation of mobile browsing.

Partnerships have always been a key component of the mobile ecosystem, with the operators playing a major part. The Ad networks have largely chosen to go it alone. Mark Westling of Sigma argues that engaging operators into the advertising platform has its advantages and the potential to deliver far greater returns.

Over at MSearchGroove, leading industry commentator, Peggy Ann Salz offers a headline overview of the recent M-days event in Munich – trends from Christian Lindholm, of Fjord, mobile operators embrace ad-funded models from Kerstin Trikalitis, of Out There Media, and insight to Eastern European mobile operators and leading content owners on the problems they face and progress they have made.

Mobile is clearly already presenting some real returns.

Companies succeeding in mobile are those players that have recognised the gaps in their knowledge of new media and have brought in professionals that do (even better if these professionals are themselves digital natives with an instinctive grasp of mobile and its impact on every aspect of our daily lives). What it will take for Traditional players to succeed in The NEW NEW Media world.

Organisations need to stop thinking of mobile as a technology and understand it is a utility. The mobile device has evolved into a multifunctional tool. It is our social organiser, our information resource, our boredom filler. Basically, it supports our lives.  As a marketing medium mobile is only set to grow in value. Providers that get the basics right and forge partnerships that allow them to unlock the potential of mobile, monetise their digital assets and deliver features that add value to our lives will be well-equipped to compete against rivals and win. Guiding organisations in defining and developing a mobile presence is a core part of the work at Indigo 102.

I always suggest that the importance of the basics can never be overstated.

There is some great content in this week’s Carnival. It wasn’t easy picking this week’s best posts but there can be only one winner in each category. I’m giving the award for Best post by a Carnival newcomer to Emma Vernon for her post on how the iPad fails to excite Generation Y.  Post of the week honors go to Carl Martin at Redweb for his cry for ‘Back to basics’.

Next Monday head over to Communities Dominate Brands for the next installment of the Carnival of the Mobilists.

Images by foreversouls and from Cobrasoft at Stock.xchng

Analyst firm Gartner has supported Nokia’s view of an upturn in the mobile device market next year, forecasting a 9 percent year-on-year increase in sales compared to 2009. Gartner’s prediction allies with Nokia’s belief that the mobile device market will rise 10 percent next year compared to 2009.

Stronger than expected sales in Western Europe and an acceleration in the grey market in the third quarter­ of this year will drive worldwide mobile device sales to end users to 1.214 billion units, a 0.67 per cent decline from 2008, according to the latest outlook by Gartner.

In September, Gartner had forecast sales to decline 3.7 per cent in 2009. Gartner now predicts sales in 2010 will show a 9 per cent increase from 2009.

Gartner expects growth to be driven by the fact that replacement cycles globally will return to normal within two years, with the introduction of more aggressively priced Smartphones and shorter contracts. Gartner also expects second-hand sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilise in 2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less macro-economic pressure. Gartner expects growth to be driven by the fact that replacement cycles globally will return to normal within two years, with the introduction of more aggressively priced Smartphones and shorter contracts. Gartner also expects second-hand sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilise in 2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less macro-economic pressure. This will help increase total yearly sales to 1.322 billion units in 2010.

“Although the grey market or ‘white label’ is not a new phenomenon and has been generated by Chinese device manufacturers who do not have a licence to sell and manufacture devices without a valid international mobile equipment identity (IMEI), today grey-market sales are no longer limited to China,” said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner. “All manufacturers will have to compete with grey-market players as they expand into emerging markets in Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America and bring a lower weighted average selling price (ASP). The grey market will affect Nokia’s market share the most.”

In 2009, overall market economic conditions impacted disposable income and extended replacement cycles in mature markets from 12 to 18 months. Gartner expects replacement cycles globally to return to normal within two years, with the introduction of more aggressively priced Smartphones and shorter contracts. Gartner also expects second-hand sales in emerging markets and SIM-only sales globally to stabilise in 2010 and to start decreasing from 2011 as consumers feel less macro-economic pressure.

Smartphone volumes will represent 14 per cent of total mobile devices sales in 2009, growing by 23.6 per cent from 2008 and to 38 per cent by 2013. However, this positive outlook could be negatively impacted by mobile operators’ decision to associate all Smartphones with high flat-rate data plans, which could increase the total cost of ownership beyond mass-market consumer acceptance. Despite this, Gartner expects global ASPs for enhanced phones and Smartphones to decline by 3 per cent in 2010.

The strong performance of markets such as Western Europe and Asia Pacific was balanced by weaker than expected sales in Latin America and the Middle East and Africa.

Forecast: Mobile Terminal Sales to End Users, Worldwide, 2007-2011 (Thousands of Units)

Source: Gartner (December 2009)

“Despite a projected return to growth in 2010, the times of 20 per cent growth are certainly over as mature markets are saturated and most growth will come from emerging markets,” concluded Ms Milanesi. “Pressure will remain for manufacturers to sustain and grow margins as ASP continues to decline. Software, services and content will be much bigger drivers than hardware, pushing traditional mobile phone vendors to reinvent themselves to remain at the top of their game.”

Gartner

A tour around Nokia World 2009 conference held last week with Rafe Blandford of All About Symbian. Some great coverage as Rafe attempts to emulate Martin Brundle with a walking/talking tour.

A tour around Nokia World 2009 conference held last week with Rafe Blandford of All About Symbian. Some great coverage as Rafe attempts to emulate Martin Brundle with a walking/talking tour.

Nokia has announced the much talked about N900 to the world, featuring a new OS and upgraded features over last year’s flagship model, the N97.

The main difference is it’s using the Maemo OS, which has been reserved for Nokia’s internet tablets before, but now makes its debut in a phone-sized chassis. It’s the same slide-out QWERTY form factor as the N97, but the N900 has a more responsive screen, a keyboard more similar to the E75, and crucially a new UI too.

Improved multi-tasking

Maemo not only means improved multi-tasking (with 1GB of memory supporting a huge amount of applications) but also brings Mozilla’s internet browser to the masses, complete with full Flash 9.4 support.

It’s running with a super-powerful ARM Cortex-A8 processor and OpenGL ES 2.0 graphics acceleration under the bonnet, and also brings a 5MP camera, 32GB of internal memory and ultra-fast 10Mbps HSDPA download speeds (if your network supports it).

The Maemo interface is completely redesigned as well to allow multi-tasking, with movable icons, an upgraded and more attractive UI, as well as more desktop-style applications.

The N900’s screen has a higher resolution than most previous Nokia phones, coming in at a WVGA (800 x 480) pixel count, so video watching will be simple.

Cheaper than before

“With Linux software, Mozilla-based browser technology and now also with cellular connectivity, the Nokia N900 delivers a powerful mobile experience,” says Anssi Vanjoki, Executive Vice President of Markets for Nokia.

“The Nokia N900 shows where we are going with Maemo and we’ll continue to work with the community to push the software forward. What we have with Maemo is something that is fusing the power of the computer, the internet and the mobile phone, and it is great to see that it is evolving in exciting ways.”

The new phone will be on show at Nokia World in early September and has a penciled release date for later in the year with reasonable estimated price tag of €500.